House prices lose out, 10 years on from Brexit vote

London is the biggest housing market loser, 10 years on from the Brexit referendum.

The EU remain/leave vote was on June 23 2016.

Across the UK as a whole, the average house price has increased from £196,106 at the time of the Brexit vote to £270,080 today, a rise of £73,974, or 37.7%.

The Bank of England says cumulative inflation between June 2016 and June 2026 comes to 41.45% – so the housing market has failed to keep pace with a wider range of rising prices since the Brexit vote

An analysis by online agency Yopa reveals that within in London in particular, many areas have seen absolute falls in prices now compared with a decade ago.

The City of London has seen values fall by -31.7%, while the City of Westminster has recorded a decline of -24.7%.

Hammersmith & Fulham has recorded a decline of -8%, followed by Kensington and Chelsea (-5.6%), Tower Hamlets (-5.2%), Aberdeenshire (-4.6%), Wandsworth (-4.1%) and Southwark (-1.6%).

By contrast Northern Ireland – which a decade ago voted 56% to remain and 44% to leave – has seen house prices rise well above inflation. They have increased by £81,378, or 69.8%, over the last decade.

Meanwhile separate research from specialist mortgage lender finds half of Britons (50%) believe Brexit has ultimately harmed the housing market to some extent.

Specifically:

While almost a third (28%) believe Brexit harmed a lot, a fifth (22%) believe it harmed a little;
Just a quarter (24%) of respondents think Brexit ultimately helped the UK housing market;
9% believe that it actually significantly improved the UK housing market – with 14% believing it only helped a little;
Those in Scotland (47%), North East (37%) and North West of England (33%) said Brexit harmed the UK housing market a lot;
Just 19% of Londoners and 11% of those in the West Midlands thought it helped boost the UK housing market

Scott Clay of Together says:

“While it’s difficult to isolate Brexit from other major events we’ve experienced over the past decade, including the pandemic, inflation surge and rapid increases in interest rates, and, more recently, tensions in Iran cooling buyer confidence – the reality for many households has been higher borrowing costs and greater affordability pressures over the past decade.

“In terms of development, Brexit introduced new trade barriers, supply chain friction – directly affecting the costs of new builds – and a reduction in EU construction workers.

“These factors, coupled with more recent increases in red tape, may have hampered the viability of many housing developments, with continued weak demand threatening the government’s target of building 1.5 million homes by 2029.

“These findings highlight ongoing concerns related to economic stability and raise the issue of reduced consumer confidence and investment hesitancy in the housing sector.”

Over the wider economy, Brexit has cost the UK at least 6% in lost growth according to the Bank of England.

Economists analysed 10 years’ worth of data and decisions from thousands of British firms, as well as the growth and economic factors that have occurred since the UK voted to leave.

They also attempted to plot the path the nation might have taken if voters had opted to remain in the European Union.

The consensus was a fall of 6% from company data and an average of 8% when using five other analysis methods.

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