Broker mortgage market share could plummet to 50% by 2030

The broker mortgage market share could plummet lower than 50% within a decade as lenders use data and technology to drum up direct business, industry leaders believe.

At a recent roundtable, called “the mortgage market in 2030”, hosted by MRM, the financial services communications consultancy, key industry figures predicted brokers would struggle to maintain their current 77% [1] share of the market.

The group agreed that lenders would use utilise big data and machine learning to make it more attractive for borrowers to go direct to a lender, rather than a broker, most likely through bespoke pricing and slick processes.

The prediction follows an update this month from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in which it effectively made it easier to get mortgage without first taking advice [2], which is seen as a blow to the broker market.

Speaking at MRM’s roundtable, Dev Malle, group distribution director of conveyancer myhomemove, said:

“I would say, potentially, 50% of the market in the next 10 years will be execution-only or a hybrid version of it.

“The critical bit here is data. Brokers haven’t got anything like the data lenders have. Are lenders going to trust risk decisions to a third-party when they have access to this data?

Lynda Blackwell, ex-FCA mortgage manager and now non-executive director at digital lender Molo Finance, said:

“The broker market will be a lot smaller in the future. I think disintermediation is really starting to happen and intermediaries are definitely going to be impacted.

“Big lenders are going to digitalise and move away from brokers because it is such an expensive distribution channel.”

However, the group agreed that even by 2030 there will still be a large section of society who will still want independent, face-to-face advice, although they will be significantly smaller in number.

Andrew Montlake, managing director at broker Coreco, said:

“Brokers won’t have a 75% share of the market [in 2030] but they will still have a really good future. It’s all about adapting to consumer demand; reacting to how they want to be deal with; embracing tech, rather than being afraid of it; and looking after their clients better.

“There will be fewer brokers in the market but if those that are left can do all of this, then they will have a good relationship with their clients and will thrive.”

David Whittaker, chief executive of buy-to-let lender Keystone Property Finance, said he believed many lenders, too, should fear for their future in the age of Big Data and rapidly developing tech.

He said:

“Just as brokers need to fear for their future, so too do incumbent High Street lenders, whose grip on technology is at best passing, and have shown no willingness to get to grips with today’s problems.

“They have to be more fearful about what is going to happen to them, rather than brokers having to be fearful for their future.”


1 IMLA, January 2020: ‘The new normal – prospects for 2020 and 2021’

2 FCA, January 2020: Policy Statement PS20/1: Mortgage advice and selling standards: feedback to CP19/17 and final rules  


Kindly shared by MRM