Stamp duty income to fall but house prices to rise, says official forecast

Figures from the independent Office for Budget Responsibility suggest that house prices across the UK will rise by 3.1 per cent in 2018.

Increases will then dip slightly to 3.0 per cent in 2019 and then 2.9 per cent in 2020, with the higher rate next year down to the abolition of first time buyer stamp duty announced in last week’s Budget.

The OBR is the non-political economic forecasting body funded by the government; it has released its forecasts as part of the Budget paperwork.

The office also says that house prices are expected to rise by 15 per cent between the second quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2022 – this is significantly less than its forecast of 22 per cent for the same period, made after the spring Budget in March this year.

The OBR has also revised its forecasts for Stamp Duty receipts downward; the scrapping of first time buyers’ duty is set to cost some £3.2 billion by the end of 2022.

It is now predicted to raise £9.6 billion in 2017/2018, increasing to £11.7 billion by 2022/2023.

Duty income from the additional homes surcharge is set to contribute 23 or 24 per cent of total stamp duty receipts.

Kindly shared by EstateAgentTODAY