reallymoving House Price Forecast (published November 2019)
The reallymoving House Price Forecast, published in November 2019, suggests that house prices are set to end the year at 4% annual growth.
Headlines:
- Average house prices to dip by 1.3% over the next three months (November 2019 to January 2020)
- Annual growth of 4.1% forecast for December 2019 in England and Wales
- Underlying value of property market remains fundamentally stable despite continued uncertainty
| Month | Average price agreed | Monthly change % | Annual change % |
| September 2019 (actual) | £300,715 | 0.7% | 3.1% |
| October 2019 (actual) | £303,798 | 1.0% | 4.8% |
| November 2019 (forecast) | £302,983 | -0.3% | 4.8% |
| December 2019 (forecast) | £299,705 | -1.1% | 4.1% |
| January 2020 (forecast) | £299,817 | 0.0% | 3.8% |
House prices in England and Wales are on track to end the year 4.1% higher than at the end of 2018, despite a tumultuous year politically resulting in low consumer confidence and subdued transaction levels, according to the reallymoving House Price Forecast November 2019, released today.
As homebuyers register for quotes for home move services on the site typically twelve weeks before their purchase completes, reallymoving is able to provide an accurate three-month property price forecast based on the purchase price agreed. Historically, reallymoving’s data has closely tracked the Land Registry’s Price Paid data, published retrospectively (see Graph 1). This forecast is based on mix-adjusted data from sales agreed in August, September and October 2019, which will complete over the next three months.
Graph 1: reallymoving House Price Index (England and Wales) including 3-month price forecast
Monthly price changes
Average prices in England and Wales are set to dip by 0.3% in November and 1.1% in December, with 0% growth forecast in January 2020. Despite a continued lack of clarity over Brexit, buyers and sellers who need to move have pressed ahead to agree deals with values peaking later than usual in October and tailing off towards the end of the year.
The latest data from HMRC shows an uptick in transaction levels in September, rising 5% from August and 2.3% from September 2018, indicating that steady demand from home movers who need to move for work, family or financial reasons is continuing to support prices.
Annual price changes
Annually, house prices have performed better than expected throughout 2019, with 4.8% annual growth in October and November, the highest level seen since March 2016. Average house prices will end the year at £299,705 in December 2019, compared with £287,901 twelve months previously. This trend is supported by the most recent Land Registry Price Paid Data which shows 2.3% annual growth in September 2019.
Underlying conditions in the wider economy, such as low unemployment, low interest rates and rising household incomes continue to underpin the housing market and support steady year on year growth.
Analysis and commentary
Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving, comments:
“Most regions of the UK are set to see prices dip over the final quarter of the year which is partly down to seasonality as the market follows its usual pattern of peaking in the late summer/early autumn and then tailing off steadily towards the end of the year.
“It’s fair to say 2019 was never going to be a stellar year for the housing market but despite consumer confidence taking a battering, house prices in England and Wales are on course to end the year 4% higher than at the end of 2018, which supports our belief that the underlying value of property remains fundamentally stable.
“The political situation now is as uncertain as ever with a General Election just a few weeks away, but the figures indicate that the market will continue bumping along in much the same manner as we head into the new decade.”
Kindly shared by reallymoving.com
