The June 2020 House Price Index published by Halifax

The June 2020 House Price Index published by Halifax shows house prices fell again across the month, although mortgage enquiries have surged.

Headlines:

• On a monthly basis, house prices in June were 0.1% lower than in May
• In the latest quarter (April to June) house prices were 0.9% lower than in the preceding three months (January to March)
• House prices in June were 2.5% higher than in the same month a year earlier

Russell Galley, Managing Director, Halifax, said:

“Average house prices fell by 0.1% in June as the UK property market continued to emerge from lockdown. Though only a small decrease, it is notable as the first time since 2010 – when the housing market was struggling to gain traction following the shock of the global financial crisis – that prices have fallen for four months in a row.

“Activity levels bounced back strongly in June, which is typically the busiest month for mortgage activity in the UK. New mortgage enquiries were up by 100% compared to May, and with prospective buyers also revisiting purchases previously put on hold, transaction volumes rose sharply compared to previous months. However, whilst encouraging, it remains too early to say if this level of activity will be sustained.

“The near-term outlook points to a continuation of the recent modest downward trend in prices through the third quarter of the year, with sentiment indicators, based on surveys of both agents and households, currently at or around multi-year lows.

“Of course, come the autumn, the macroeconomic landscape in the UK should be clearer and the scale of the impact of the pandemic on the labour market more apparent. We do expect greater downward pressure on prices in the medium-term, the extent of which will depend on the success of government support measures and the speed at which the economy can recover.”

Key facts – Housing activity:

• HMRC Monthly property transactions data shows a small rise in UK home sales in May. UK seasonally adjusted residential transactions in May 2020 were 48,450 – up by 16% from April as the COVID-19 lockdown measures began to ease. Year-on-year, transactions in May were approximately 49.6% lower than May 2019 (52.4% lower on a non-seasonally adjusted basis). (Source: HMRC, seasonally-adjusted figures)
• Mortgage approvals fell in May. Bank of England figures show that the number of mortgages approved to finance house purchases was 9,273 in May 2020 – this represents a 41% month on month fall following a 72% fall in April. The year on year fall is 86%. (Source: Bank of England, seasonally-adjusted figures)
• The easing of the lockdown measures has resulted in a slight improvement in the outlook for sales and enquiries according to the latest set of results (May 2020) from the RICS Residential Market Survey. New buyer demand has moved to a net balance of -5% (from a record low -94% in April). New instructions to sell still remain in negative territory at -20% but an improvement on last month’s -97%. Newly agreed sales net balance has edged up to -35% (from -93% previously). No meaningful changes were reported in the devolved nations where restrictions affecting estate agents were not eased in May. (Source: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors’ (RICS) monthly report)

Kindly shared by Halifax