Speed of the UK economic recovery slows down in October

The speed of the UK economic recovery from coronavirus fell behind the global benchmark in October for the first time since June 2020, the Lloyds Bank UK Recovery Tracker found.

Real estate (52.4%) dropped below the benchmark in October, along with beverages and food (43.5), household goods (45), technology equipment (52.7), chemicals (51.9), real estate (52.4) and banks (55.2).

The Global PMI posted a reading of 53.3 in October, above the UK’s reading of 52.1.

Jeavon Lolay, head of economics and market insight, Lloyds Bank Commercial Banking, said:

“The October data shows that the UK’s recovery was slowing after a strong economic rebound in the third quarter. At the sector-level, eleven of the sectors monitored by the tracker reported a weaker performance in October than during September.

“The restrictions facing many businesses last month are now being compounded by various lockdown measures. However, while near term growth prospects will continue to be determined by the path of the virus and the extent of restrictions to control its spread, news of potentially viable vaccines is an encouraging development. If, as hoped, a vaccination programme is rolled out, the UK’s recovery should be revived and become more sustainable next year.”

UK manufacturing firms outperformed services businesses for an eighth consecutive month in October, highlighting the disparity with consumer facing sectors, such as tourism and recreation, when it comes to restrictions on trade.

The best performing manufacturing sectors, metals and mining and automobiles and auto parts, were relatively unaffected by the new measures introduced in October, with many experiencing rising order numbers as international supply chain disruption continued to ease following the end of the Spring lockdown.

A robust recovery in business activity across the United States (56.3) was the main contributor to the rising global benchmark, alongside strong performances by China (55.7), India (58.0) and Brazil (55.9).

Despite a slowdown in growth, the UK’s overall index was comparatively strong versus European nations that tightened Covid-19 restrictions earlier, with France (47.5), Spain (44.1) and Italy (49.2) all posting output contractions.

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