reallymoving House Price Forecast: UK property prices on course for summer surge

The UK property market is on track for a remarkable upturn in sale prices at the start of this summer based on sales agreed this spring, predicts reallymoving in its inaugural House Price Forecast, released today, which predicts a 9% surge in average prices in the three months between May and August 2019.

• Analysis of sale prices agreed suggests house prices will benefit from a significant summer uplift
• Average prices are set to rise by 9% in the three months between May and August 2019
• Average UK property prices remained stable in May 2019 compared to previous month (-0.2% change)
• Introducing reallymoving’s inaugural House Price Forecast www.reallymoving.com/house-price-forecast

As homebuyers register for quotes for home move services on the site typically twelve weeks before their purchase completes, providing data on the purchase price agreed, reallymoving is able to provide an accurate three-month property price forecast before those deals complete three months later. Historically, reallymoving’s data has closely tracked the Land Registry’s Price Paid data, published retrospectively.

Monthly price changes

Average UK property prices fell steadily between January and April 2019 as Brexit uncertainty gripped the market, held-back consumer confidence and curtailed transaction levels.

But despite a slow start, the spring market has shown a good deal of resilience, with prices agreed during the past few weeks forecast to deliver a surge in average values of 6% between May and June 2019, followed by a further 3% increase in August. The market is following a similar pattern to spring/summer 2018, when the Land Registry recorded price rises of +4.4% between May and August 2018, but this year, greater pent up demand and growing impatience with the Brexit process has resulted in a more pronounced increase in house prices during the summer period.

Annual price changes

Annually, prices have been consistently lower than the previous year between January and May 2019. A notable annual drop in values in May 2019 of -6% (see Graph 2) is further evidence that this year the spring market has accelerated later than in 2018, as the traditionally busy spring sales window was delayed by Brexit uncertainty.

However, an increase in market activity later in the spring means annual price changes are forecast to stabilise, with +1% growth expected in June, followed by 0% change in July and -1% in August 2019.

Analysis and commentary

Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving, comments:

“Prices agreed this spring will show in Land Registry data in the summer, yet our customers registering for home move services as soon as their deal is agreed are giving us unique insight into what lies ahead for the housing market.

“Our forecasts suggest that sellers are growing tired of the ‘wait and see’ approach and once the Brexit deadline passed at the end of March, with no further clarification, sellers decided to press ahead with their move. This new buyer demand and a continued shortage of quality housing stock is on course to drive strong price growth between May and August, with particular surges in regions benefiting from strong demand such as the North East and the South West, where affordability remains attractive and wages are rising.

“Annually, average UK prices have been falling since the start of the year but in June we can expect prices to see a return to positive growth with a rise of +1% year on year, followed by 0% change in July. This suggests that a strong market performance over the spring will see prices make up the value lost in the first part of 2019 and are set to recover to 2018 levels this summer.

“There is considerable pent up demand in the market following three years of uncertainty and with many doubting that Brexit will be resolved any time soon, people are increasingly making the decision to move on regardless.”

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