FTB Sales Down and Landlords Exiting Market – Propertymark’s 2018 Property Market Analysis

As we near the end of 2018, here is NAEA and ARLA Propertymark’s analysis of its sales and lettings data to reveal trends from the year.

NAEA Propertymark’s overview of the housing market:

• Over the course of 2018, demand was lower than last year with an average of 324 house buyers registered per branch, compared to 366 on average throughout 2017. Looking back over the last 10 years, it’s up by 31 per cent, from 222 per branch in 2008.

[Figure 1: demand for housing over the last ten years]

• The number of properties available to buy hasn’t changed drastically year-on-year, with 38 available per branch throughout 2017 and 39 in 2018, hitting a two-year high with 46 in September. However, supply has dropped significantly over the last ten years, from 89 on average per branch in 2008.
• The number of sales agreed per branch throughout the year fell in 2018, from nine on average per month in 2017, to eight this year. Historically, this figure has remained fairly consistent, only moving between 12 and seven from 2008 to now.
• Despite the fact first-time buyers (FTBs) benefitted from stamp duty relief in 2018, the proportion of total sales made to the group fell by one percentage point year-on-year – from 26 per cent on average in 2017 to 25 per cent in 2018.

Mark Hayward, Chief Executive, NAEA Propertymark comments on the findings: 

“2018 has been a busy year for the property market, with the Government launching several consultations to address important issues – most notably to regulate the sector, improve the buying and selling process, and address the issue of leaseholds. The housing market has notably slowed, particularly over the last couple of months, which could be a by-product of Brexit uncertainty, as buyers hold off on purchases until the outcome is clear.”

ARLA Propertymark’s overview of the private rented sector:

• The supply of rental accommodation dropped slightly in 2018, from 189 on average per branch in 2017, to 187 this year. It reached an annual high in October, when letting agents were managing 198 per branch.
• In line with this, as landlords continued to face legislative change, the number of buy-to-let (BTL) investors selling their properties increased from an average of three in 2017 to four in 2018. In April and May this year, the figure spiked to five per branch – the highest since records began in 2015.
• The number of tenants experiencing rent hikes also increased this year, to 25 per cent each month in 2017, to 28 per cent on average this year.
• Agents reported a spike in the number of prospective tenants searching for homes in July, when 79 were recorded per branch, compared to 68 on average across the year.

David Cox, Chief Executive, ARLA Propertymark comments on the findings: 

“The number of landlords exiting the rental market is rising, and those who aren’t worried about it yet, should be. BTL investors have faced a huge amount of legislative change over the last 18 months alone, and as costs rise, they are being driven out of the market and new ones are being deterred from entering. The Government is developing a joined-up approach for legislating the private rented sector, but until this has been put into action and the market is made more attractive for landlords, rents will continue to rise, competition will intensify, and tenants will continue to suffer.”

Kindly shared by NAEA Propertymark and ARLA Propertymark