reallymoving House Price Forecast published for July 2019

House prices in England and Wales are set to rise by 1.2% over the next three months (June to September 2019), propelled by strong growth in August which will see average values increase by 3.2% before dipping again in September, according to the reallymoving House Price Forecast released today.

The spring market got off to a slow start this year but a busy May for house hunters is expected to translate to price rises in August when those sales typically complete. As homebuyers register for quotes for home move services on the site typically twelve weeks before their purchase completes, providing data on the purchase price agreed, reallymoving is able to provide an accurate three-month property price forecast before those deals complete three months’ later. Historically, reallymoving’s data has closely tracked the Land Registry’s Price Paid data, published retrospectively.

With a No Deal Brexit looking more likely, buyers and sellers who have pursued a ‘wait and see’ approach are now keen to get a deal done before the 31st October deadline, when it is feared house prices could undergo a significant adjustment.

Monthly price changes

A more resilient than expected spring market was reflected in substantial monthly house price growth in June, which saw average prices in England and Wales increase by 6.5% compared to May. This can be partly attributed to the seasonal effect, but reallymoving’s seasonally adjusted figures also show growth of 3.2%, indicating that the market saw genuine strong growth in values for sales completing at the start of the summer.

Average values are set to remain relatively stable in July, dipping by just 0.5%, followed by a surge of 3.2% between July and August.

Annual price changes

Annually, property values fell consistently between January and May 2019, but as predicted, this trend reversed at the start of the summer when prices increased by 2.3% in June compared to twelve months previously.

Annual growth is forecast to remain in positive territory through the summer, with a 0.7% annual increase forecast in July, followed by 1.2% in August and 3.8% in September. The forecast figure for September represents the strongest annual growth seen for ten months, since the previous peak of 4.3% growth in November 2018.

Analysis and commentary

Rob Houghton, CEO of reallymoving, comments:

“The spring market was more robust than expected and this has prompted positive growth through the summer, particularly for deals agreed in May which are translating to sale prices in August.

“The chance of us leaving the EU without a deal seems increasingly likely and people are realising that the window between now and the end of October may present their best opportunity to sell. The market has proved itself to be surprisingly stable over the last twelve months but this could change if we crash out of the EU on Halloween.

“Annually prices are on an upward trajectory from June through to September, when they are forecast to end the summer 3.8% higher than in September 2018, but the longer-term outlook remains uncertain. There is huge pent up demand in the market, however, and if the UK is able to agree a deal with the EU we could see a rush of properties hitting the market in the late autumn along with a surge in buyer demand.

“A mixed picture remains regionally, but there are twice as many regions forecast to see price growth over the summer than price falls, with particularly strong performances in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.”

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